Electric vehicle & Rechargeable Battery Market

Electric vehicle & Rechargeable Battery Market
1.01 Present Status Vs Potential
Many countries have set targets to go emission free including India, which seeks that every vehicle sold in the country should be a zero-emission vehicle by 2030. Globally, around 95% of electric vehicles (EVs) are sold in just ten countries i.e. China, USA, Norway, UK, France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Japan and Canada. These countries have strong policy strategies and incentives when it comes to owning electric vehicles.
As compared to the internal combustion vehicle, EVs have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. According to a 2007 estimate, India’s transport sector was responsible for 7.5% of the country’s total GHG emissions.
The National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP) 2020 launched in 2013 aims to achieve national fuel security by promoting hybrid and electric vehicles in the country. With the success of the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan 2020 (NEMMP), India will be able to save 9500 million litres of fuel, as well as 2 million tonne of GHG emissions, by 2020. By 2030, India aims to hit 100 percent electric vehicle sales mark and the country’s battery manufacturing is expected to scale to support domestic demand. While EVs are not yet mainstream, the Government’s push and other indications point to a growing momentum. Reduction in battery prices and rise in consumer awareness are driving EV adoption in India.
Another advantage of adopting of EVs is related to improving the country’s energy security. India imported 83% of the total crude oil consumed in 2015–16 and spent around INR 4160 billion. As per the government’s think tank, NITI Aayog, India can save upto INR 3.9 trillion by switching to green mobility by 2030. The Government of India (GoI) announced ambitious plans in 2013, to deploy 6–7 million EVs by 2020, under the NEMMP. The primary objectives of NEMMP were to achieve national fuel security and GHG emission reductions.
However, the high cost of EVs and lack of charging infrastructure are the key barriers in achieving the objectives of NEMMP. For instance, in 2016, only 22,000 EVs were sold in India. Our estimates show that a maximum battery storage requirement of 13.8 GWh will be required by 2020, for electric four wheelers, buses and the light commercial vehicle (LCV) segments.
Storage is also an enabler for high penetration of renewables, as mandated by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), which has set a target of installing 175 GW of renewable energy (RE), by 2022. A grid, with proper storage, will not only help integrate renewables with other conventional sources of energy, but also play an important role in ensuring high quality of electricity supply. In grid-connected storage options, the battery would have a significant share, of about 5 GW, by 2022. This will further increase to 7.8 GW by 2032, as per NITI Aayog’s ‘India Energy Security Scenario 2047’.
The Government launched the scheme ‘Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles (FAME India)’ under NEMMP 2020 in the Union Budget for 2015-16 with an initial outlay of INR 75 Crore. The scheme is expected to provide a major push for early adoption and market creation of both hybrid and electric technologies vehicles in the country.
India’s market for lithium-ion EV batteries is projected to grow at a CAGR of 33 percent by volume from 2017 to 2030.
Based on global EV projections, the global demand for EV batteries will require nearly 100 Giga factories by 2050, representing a $416 billion (INR 30 lakh crore) investment for battery manufacturing alone. Industry experts expect battery manufacturing capacity to double by 2021 to 273 GWh/y, up from about 100 GWh/y at present. By 2030, 1,300 GWh/y of total global capacity is anticipated. The present government is also putting in efforts to coordinate all R&D activities under one roof.
2019 – All government-owned public transport buses would be converted to EV. The Government is committed to EV. In addition to government sources, this vision is emphasized by private sector companies as well.
2020 – 120 GW of energy to be generated out of which 70 GW will be Solar Energy – India will continue to push for renewable energy. Future focus of the Government is energy storage. There is focus on Stationary Storage with Micro/Mini Grid and charge care with Photovoltaic (PV).
2030 – Energy Storage mission – The NITI Aayog policy document makes a clear case for Electric vehicles and the future direction of the Government. This is a Mega Trend that is going to play out in India over the next 10-20 years.
Urban Mining – Solving the raw material problem. The NITI Aayog mission document gives stress to reliable supply, not just of the raw materials but also of processed functional materials used in anode and cathode.
Advocacy for Recycling – The NITI Aayog mission document makes a clear case for conducting advanced research on battery reuse and recycling.
Flame Retardant – Danger of impact can be very high in EVs, as poor connectors may lead to flames. Flammability standard in India is expected to be the same as China, so Bromine- based flame retardants for EV batteries are expected to be in high demand.
In India, the time is ripe for EVs to become mainstream with the right technology and products. Active engagement of the government, both at the Centre and the State, with private players is the need of the hour for setting up a robust EV ecosystem. Investments need to be ramped up towards developing the next generation of EV technologies and products that will cater to the smart cities of tomorrow. The big shots of the automotive industry are also taking the electric route, and have already laid out a road map.
This stupendous transformation will also serve solar power developers and lithium ion battery makers. The futures of solar power and EVs in India are closely interlinked, given that EVs have batteries that can offer a storage solution to India’s solar energy push. For energy firms, setting up of charging infrastructure is an attractive proposition as EVs will also generate fresh demand for electricity. Despite the euphoria surrounding India’s EV programme, speed bumps in the policy and corporate landscape remain. One such hindrance is that India does not have enough lithium reserves for manufacturing lithium-ion batteries. An effective charging infrastructure is required, which takes care of ‘range anxiety,’ and the necessary regulations for creating the ecosystem for electrical vehicles to operate smoothly. Other issues that persist include fast charging module, distribution licence, etc.
India needs to be prepared for the mobility transformation, and policymakers must take an in-depth look at the policies, and revamp the infrastructure. India has a huge potential to become one of the world’s largest automobile markets, and the government should start preparing for it. Stricter policies, better incentives and quality infrastructure must lead the way ahead.
Many firms in Japan, South Korea, China, and the US have entered the lithium-ion battery market and it presents a crowded and chaotic picture. Among the Japanese players are Panasonic, Sony, TDK, Hitachi, NEC, Toshiba, GS Yuasa, and Mitsubishi Electric. South Korean firms include Samsung SDI and LG Chem, while the Chinese are represented by BYD, Tianjin Lishen Battery, and BAK and the US by A123.
1.02 About Li-ion Batteries
What are Lithium-Ion Batteries?
A lithium-ion battery is an electric device capable of charging and discharging. They are widely used as a power supply for consumer electronics as well as hybrid and electric vehicles. Semiconductors and LCDs control electronic circuits and display information; lithium-ion batteries supply the electrical energy as they need to perform these functions.
A Lithium - ion Battery is comprised of positive (cathode) and negative (anode) electrode materials divided by a separator, and electrolytic solution (Figure 1). The positive electrode is a lithium compound and the negative electrode a carbon material. A binder is used to attach them to a current collector (copper foil or Aluminium foil). The positive and negative electrode materials and the separator are rolled inside a metal case together with the electrolytic solution.
A lithium-ion battery discharges/charges by way of a chemical reaction between the positive and negative electrode materials in the cell. During discharge, a chemical reaction extracts lithium ions from the negative electrode, which flow through the separator and insert in the positive electrode. Through this process, electrons are carried from the negative electrode to the positive electrode, creating a current that is discharged via an external circuit. During charging, voltage is applied to the battery via an external circuit, causing lithium ions to flow in the reverse direction, from the positive electrode to the negative electrode.
Figure 1: Basic Structure of a Lithium-Ion Battery

1.03 Structures of Lithium-Ion Batteries
Lithium-ion batteries are made in three shapes: cylindrical, prismatic, and laminate. Cylindrical lithium-ion batteries are often used in notebook PCs, while prismatic and laminate lithium-ion batteries are mainly used in mobile phones that require thin and compact power sources. Medium and large lithium-ion batteries used for electric vehicle and power storage applications come in all three shapes. Cylindrical lithium-ion batteries have steel cases and are characterized by superior structural strength and large capacity potential. Also, because of the ease of rolling the battery components, this shape is suitable for mass production and helps to keep costs low.
Prismatic lithium-ion batteries have an aluminium case and their profile is more easily lowered compared with cylindrical lithium-ion batteries. Also, when a battery contains multiple cells, the prismatic shape allows for more efficient use of space compared with a cylinder, which has dead space. Prismatic lithium-ion batteries are used in mobile phones that require thin and compact power sources.
Unlike cylindrical and prismatic lithium-ion batteries, which have metal cases, laminate lithium-ion batteries are wrapped in an aluminium laminate film similar to the retort packaging used for instant foods. Laminate lithium-ion batteries often use a gel electrolyte, in which case they are usually called lithium polymer batteries. Laminate lithium-ion batteries are lighter than cylindrical and prismatic lithium-ion batteries and more flexible in design. For these reasons they are increasingly being adopted for smartphones and tablet PCs. They are also being adopted for electric vehicles because of their superior safety performance.
1.04 Materials Used in Lithium-Ion Batteries
The performance of lithium-ion batteries depends heavily on the materials from which they are made. As the operation of rechargeable batteries is based on chemical reactions, performance is directly affected by the materials. In addition, because there is a risk that lithium-ion batteries can heat up &/or combust, materials play an important role in securing safe performance.
The four main materials used in lithium-ion batteries are cathode materials, anode materials, separators, and electrolytic solution. Cathode and anode materials supply lithium ions when batteries are discharging/charging. A separator is a film with many small holes that provide a passageway for lithium ions between positive and negative electrodes during discharge/charging. The electrolytic solution is an organic solvent diffused with electrolytes, which carry lithium ions between electrodes.
The relationship between materials and lithium-ion battery performance is as follows:

1. The difference between the oxidation reduction potential of positive and negative electrodes becomes the operating voltage, which means that the operating voltage of a lithium-ion battery is determined by the combination of cathode and anode materials;
2. Power density and energy density is determined by the type of cathode and anode materials;
3. Safety is determined by the type of cathode material and the performance of the anode materials and electrolytic solution;
4. Life span is determined by the anode materials and electrolytic solution. Also, the type of cathode material is related to battery life span in terms of performance degradation.

1.05 Challenges, Opportunities, and Outlook 2050
The automotive industry’s quest to limit its impact on the environment and transform automotive mobility into a sustainable mode of transportation continues at high intensity, despite the current economic crisis. The two principal variables of the developing market for electric cars are:

1. The technical attributes and
2. The costs of lithium-ion batteries for electric-vehicle applications.

In assessing these variables, The Boston Consulting Group’s have taken an extensive work with automotive OEMs and suppliers around the world and on a detailed analysis of the relevant intellectual-property landscape. They also created a battery cost model that allows to project future costs. In addition, they conducted more than 50 interviews with battery suppliers, automotive OEMs, university researchers, start-up companies working on leading-edge battery technologies, and government agencies across Asia, the United States, and Western Europe.
The Current State of Rechargeable Battery Technology
The value chain of Rechargeable batteries consists of seven steps:

1. component production (including raw materials);
2. cell production;
3. module production;
4. assembly of modules into the battery pack (including an electronic control unit and a cooling system);
5. integration of the battery pack into the vehicle;
6. use during the life of the vehicle; and
7. reuse and re-cycling.

Lithium-ion batteries comprise a family of battery chemistries that employ various combinations of anode and cathode materials. Each combination has distinct advantages and disadvantages in terms of safety, performance, cost, and other parameters. The most prominent technologies for automotive applications are Lithium-Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminium (NCA), Lithium-Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt (NMC), Lithium-Manganese spinel (LMO), Lithium Titanate (LTO), and Lithium-Iron Phosphate (LFP).
The technology that is currently most prevalent in consumer applications is lithium-cobalt oxide (LCO), which is generally considered unsuitable for automotive applications because of its inherent safety risks. All automotive battery chemistries require elaborates monitoring, balancing, and cooling systems to control the chemical release of energy, prevent thermal runaway, and ensure a reasonably long life span for the cells.

Any player that succeeds in breaking some of the inherent compromises among current technologies will gain a significant advantage in the market-place. The six key performance parameters are:

1. Safety.
2. Life Span.
3. Specific Energy and Specific Power
4. Charging Time.
5. Current Costs and Forecasting Methodology.
6. Performance

Some Other key features in future batteries are:

1. Fast Charging – Future batteries may be designed to charge 0-100% in just 1 minute.
2. Slow Discharge/High Storage – Slow discharge/High Storage rate is highly desired by EVs users. This feature shall enable them with high reach and accessibility. Lithium – air, Lithium – Sulphur & Lithium – Fluorine are some variant of Rechargeable batteries which enable Slow Discharge/High Storage but are not yet commercially feasible.
3. Air Charging - A wireless battery charging zone could be a solution to charging stations, where battery get charged if entered in to the wireless battery charging atmosphere. This can be achieved by improving induction charge mechanism.
4. Small Size & Light weigh battery - Small Size & Light weigh battery ease the handling and management of the same.

1.06 Lithium-ion battery supply chain
The lithium-ion battery rapidly outpaced the conventional Lead-acid battery in the electric vehicle (EV) and grid storage sectors due to technological advancement and reduced cost of Lithium-Ion battery. Currently, India fulfils its domestic demand by importing Lithium-Ion battery, primarily from the US, China, Japan, Taiwan and Denmark. Setting up indigenous manufacturing units will not only reduce costs, but also help in generating employment. Indigenous battery manufacturing will also enable higher penetration of EVs and renewables in the Indian transport and energy sectors.
Many companies contribute to the Lithium-ion battery supply chain and provide a range of services, from Li extraction to battery pack assembly. Li is mostly recovered from sea brine or hard rock. Among hard rocks, Pegmatite contains a significant amount of Li. Pegmatite is further processed to Libearing mineral like spodumene (3.7% Li), followed by the preparation of LCO or lithium hydroxide. Extraction of Li from sea brine is less expensive, as compared to that from Pegmatite. Currently, the top Li producers, Albemarle and Sociedad Químicay Minera (SQM), process LCO from Chile’s largest salt flat, named Salar de Atacama. Another Li producer, Food Machinery Corporation (FMC), produces lithium hydroxide and LCO from Argentina’s Salar del Hombre Muerto lithium brine deposit.
Though the extraction of Li from hard rock is expensive, it requires lesser time, as compared to its extraction from sea brine. Australia currently produces the highest amount of Li globally, mainly from hard rock. Australian company, Talison Lithium, extracts lithium-concentrate (spodumene) from the world’s largest lithium ore deposit in Greenbushes, Western Australia. China based Sichuan Tianqi Lithium own 51% share of Talison Lithium and the US based Albemarle owns 49% share in it. Sichuan Tianqi Lithium further processes the spodumene in China to produce LCO. Albemarle supplies Li to Panasonic Corp., Syngenta AG, Umicore SA, Samsung SDI Co. Ltd and Royal DSM NV.
Globally, one of the top EV manufacturers, Build Your Dream (BYD) takes Li from Tibet’s Lake Zabuye. The mining is operated by Tibet Shigatse Zhabuye Lithium High-Tech Co. Ltd. In 2016, BYD bought 18% stake in Tibet Shigatse Zhabuye Lithium High-Tech Co. Ltd. BYD also signed a deal in 2016 with the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Group Co., where BYD owns 48% stake in the Li mining project.
India has a very small known Li reserve, as compared to other countries like Chile, Bolivia and Australia. According to the report, the Li ore- Lepidolite is present in the Bihar mica belt, while Pegmatite is present in Chitalnar, Mundwal and Govindpal areas of south Chhattisgarh. As per the Geological Survey of India, Maralagalla–Allapatna area in the eastern parts of Srirangapatna, Karnataka, contains spodumene, whereas Kabbur and Doddakadanur, Karnataka contain Li ore hiddenite.
Other key materials
In addition to Li, other key materials such as manganese, nickel, cobalt, copper, graphite and aluminium are used in different forms in Lithium-ion battery. It is anticipated that cobalt and nickel are prone to supply-chain risks as only a few countries control the global resource stock. For instance, more than one third of the world’s cobalt is produced by the Democratic Republic of Congo. Similarly, some of the rare earth minerals used in producing EV components are mined primarily in China. South Africa is the world’s largest producer of manganese (2015), followed by China and Australia. It is to be noted that India ranks sixth in the production of manganese.
Figure 3: Lithium –ion Battery Supply chain & Contributors

Globally, China plays a significant role in lithium-ion battery manufacturing. At present, China monopolises the spherical graphite supply, which is one of the key components in Lithium-ion battery. In addition, Shenzhen based Capchem held the world’s top position as manufacturer of lithium-ion battery electrolyte, with a market share of 9.2%. Apart from electrodes and electrolytes, the separator is another key component. It prevents the battery from suffering a short circuit. Polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) are commonly used as separators in Lithium-ion batterys. Asahi Kasei, Japan is the world’s largest producer of battery separators. Other prominent separator manufacturers are Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic, Celgard, Daramic, etc.
There are several companies that are front-runners in the global Lithium-ion battery supply chain. Some of them, such as ConocoPhillips, Superior Graphite, 3M, XALT energy (previously named Dow Kokam), and South West Nano Technologies manufacture active materials and binders for electrodes. Texas Instruments, Elithion, Atmel, and Maxim play a major role in supplying battery management systems (BMS) to the Lithium-ion battery industries. Figure 4 represents the global market share of Lithium-ion battery makers in 2015. Samsung SDI had the largest market share of about 18%. In the following section, top battery manufacturers for EVs and grid application have been summarized.
Figure 4: Market Share of Lithium –ion Battery Manufacturers

AES India and Mitsubishi Corporation have jointly announced a 10 MW grid battery project for Tata Power Delhi Distribution Limited, in January 2017, where Panasonic will supply LITHIUM-ION BATTERYs. Panasonic also supplies LITHIUM-ION BATTERYs to Tesla for stationary storage application. In Figure 5, a graphical representation shows the participation of different companies in the primary supply chain for Tesla’s stationary and EV storage business. Among the top battery manufacturers, Toshiba Corp. contributes significantly to the energy storage system. It has supplied battery energy storage system (BESS) to Tohoku Electric Power Company. The 40 MW/40 MWh lithium-ion BESS is one of the largest systems in the world16.
Figure 5: Primary Supply chain for Tesla’s Stationary and EV Storage business

1.07 Supply chain for Indian Market
India is scrambling to acquire lithium and cobalt mines abroad, along with other resources, to ensure that it has access to such strategic minerals, with China having already taken a substantial lead in the race. The Indian government has directed three state-owned mineral companies to team up for the task. The joint venture partners are National Aluminium Company (Nalco – lead partner), Hindustan Copper (HCL) and Mineral Exploration Corp. Ltd (MECL). They can also invite private sector companies who are interested to participate in it. With this joint venture, India can access raw material abroad. The venture’s main mandate will be to look for and acquire strategic mineral assets abroad, particularly those in which India is deficient. The move — likely to be formalized along the lines of ONGC Videsh, which buys oil and gas assets abroad — will help the country build a strategic reserve of key minerals.
In India, lead-acid battery manufacturer, Exide Batteries, has planned to set up a Lithium-ion battery plant by 2019. The company has tied-up with a Chinese group, Chaowei, to start battery production by 2019. Reliance Industry has recently unveiled their plans of setting up a 25 GWh capacity lithium-ion battery plant in either Gujarat or Maharashtra. Some major international players, namely Suzuki Motor Corp., Toshiba Corp. and Denso Corp. have jointly announced an investment of Rs. 1,150 crores for a Lithium-ion battery manufacturing plant in Gujarat.
India has no large known sources of lithium and cobalt and access to them is critical to the success of its plan to convert most of its vehicles to electric power in about a decade or so. With China well ahead in the pursuit of such minerals, especially in Africa, the public sector units have been tasked to actively scout for and acquire assets on a war footing. Possible sources of lithium include the Congo in Africa and Latin American countries such as Argentina, Bolivia and Chile — the latter is referred to as the lithium triangle. The Congo is the leading producer of cobalt.
A spike in demand for lithium has fueled interest in mining of the metal in countries such as Bolivia, which has one-fourth of the world’s reserves. It has reached out to nations like India for exploration and extraction of the metal and manufacture of value-added products.
India’s requirement of lithium is expected to be 350,000 tonnes per year according to auto industry estimates, with companies like Suzuki India planning to manufacture lithium-ion batteries in India. A recent Metal Bulletin report said the world’s largest producers of the substance feel a shortage of lithium battery-grade compounds will endure in 2018 and years to come.
Chinese imports of cobalt from the Congo, the world’s biggest producer of the mineral, was around $1.2 billion in the first nine months of 2017, compared with $3.2 million by India, the second-largest importer, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report. The Congo accounts for nearly 54% of the world’s cobalt supplies.
Analysts say few commodities have witnessed such a dramatic rise in demand as cobalt which is essentially a byproduct of copper and nickel mining. Global cobalt production has quadrupled since 2000 to about 123,000 metric tons a year, according to the US Geological Survey.
1.08 Way forward for INDIA
The study estimated the maximum potential of the Indian market for Lithium-ion Battery in EV and grid storage applications, which are 14 GWh by 2020 and 15 GWh by 2022, respectively. To manufacture this capacity Lithium-ion battery indigenously, 24 and 20 thousand tonnes of LCO will be required for EV and grid storage, respectively.
It is also estimated, to replace all the fossil fuel driven vehicle (personal as well as commercial) with EVs and to meet the future demand of logistics around 500 GWh of storage capacity is required.
To meet global power requirement by replacing fossil fuel power plants & support renewable energy, around 5000 GWh of storage capacity is required.
In view of this huge demand, an overview of the different industries associated with the global Lithium-ion battery supply chain is to be reviewed. It is also proposed to build a Lithium-ion battery ecosystem, which will have a huge impact on the national EV and renewables targets, considering the crucial role that Lithium-ion battery plays in these sectors:

1. The government’s ‘Make in India’ programme can be leveraged; LCO can be imported from countries with rich Li reserves such as Chile, Argentina, etc. (Figure 6) to manufacture batteries in India. India can also import Li-concentrate from Australia and process it domestically.
2. The government should support and incentivize local industries to synthesize battery-grade spherical graphite, which will reduce import dependency. At present, spherical graphite is manufactured only in China. However, indigenization will have to consider environmental concerns as fine carbon dust, which is a by-product from manufacturing graphite and hazardous.
3. For ensuring steady supply of cobalt, nickel and other key materials, Memorandum of Understandings (MoU) with mineral-rich countries like Congo, Australia, the Philippines and Indonesia will reduce India’s supply chain vulnerability.
4. To support indigenous manufacturing, the government should reduce import duties on raw material and equipment. Moreover, providing initial capital subsidies to manufacturers will encourage greater penetration and development of a domestic Lithium-ion battery industry.
5. The government and private players/Public Enterprises can jointly develop a Lithium-ion battery manufacturing framework. This will open up the door for a huge work force and expertise advancement. It will give a boost not just to battery enterprises, but also to parallel industries.

Figure 6: Country-wise distribution of extractable Lithium from different source

6. India should identify emerging, high-performing Lithium-ion battery variants and take lead in manufacturing, with the help of R&D support. This includes enhancement of battery capacity as well as cycle life, which will bring down the cost of batteries. There is also a need to find a stable electrolyte (non-flammable) with high voltage tolerance to prevent thermal runaway, for safe operation.
7. India needs to develop expertise at large-scale battery pack assembly, under the ‘Skill India’ initiatives. This will enable players to set-up a long-term, sustainable Lithium-ion battery production ecosystem and facilitate employment generation.
8. India to grab the opportunity of exploration in Arctic ocean as Russia, that holds significant part of resource-rich Arctic region, has offered India to access the Northern Sea Route and invite India to invest more in exploration projects.

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